The only other time I felt confident about having passed before the results were released was right after I took it for the first time. Since then, I've always had doubts. Until now. You can call it "irrational optimism" (as I've done before), or simply a survival instinct - the desperate imagination that hope exists in a hopeless situation. I, however, prefer to call it, "confidence born of experience."
In the past, when I've been asked whether or not I think I passed, I've constructed an artificial sense of hope around the thought that, as arbitrary as the method of scoring appears to be, there's at least a 50/50 chance that I will fall on the upside of 1440 rather than below. I did this because even though I still understood the law and had spent at least a month refreshing that understanding, I had done nothing substantive to improve my writing style. In contrast, this time I was able to change, and hopefully improve, my style of writing on both the essays and the PTs, and I put in a substantial amount of work to improve my MBEs.
On recent exams, July 2011 for example, even with my historically average (for me) raw score of 140 on the MBEs, if I had averaged just 60s on my writing scores I would have passed. On the other hand, if I had achieved a
So at the risk of being prematurely premature, counting my chickens they're hatched, tallying up my passing score before it's ... tallied, etc, I believe it's time to start planning the parties.
(* Okay, so I was wrong. With a 153 raw I would have had to average 57.5 on my writing (instead of the 56 that I did average) to score above 1440. Still, I think that's easily within my abilities and, with the insight I gained through Jason's program this time, I believe I've done that. Regardless of what I score, however, I'm confident that if I didn't pass it this time then I will pass the July 2012 exam. (I know, hope springs eternal!))